Civil Violence

Quantitative Models of Civil Violence
'' Just starting as a group of links and comments. Will need to be organized as it grows''

Researchers

 * International Conflict Research Group (http://www.icr.ethz.ch/)
 * Lars-Erik Cederman http://www.icr.ethz.ch/people/cederman/
 * Luc Girardin http://www.icr.ethz.ch/people/girardin
 * Christa Deiwiks http://www.icr.ethz.ch/people/deiwiks
 * Tim Dertwinkel http://www.icr.ethz.ch/people/dertwinkel
 * Nils B. Weidmann http://www.icr.ethz.ch/people/weidmann
 * Michigan State University, Political Science
 * Ravi Bhavnani http://polisci.msu.edu/bhavnani
 * U Penn
 * Ian Lustick (Penn) http://www.polisci.upenn.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=73
 * Hebrew University of Jerusalem (http://www.huji.ac.il)
 * Dan Miodownik (Penn, Israel) http://plutomail.huji.ac.il/~miodownik/
 * Stanford
 * Jermey Weinstein (Stanford) http://polisci.stanford.edu/faculty/weinstein.html
 * David Seigel
 * Other
 * Selck, Torsten
 * Advances in Modeling Political Processes. Paper Presented at the 3rd ECPR Conference, Budapest

Publications

 * International Conflict Research Group
 * All: http://www.icr.ethz.ch/publications/by_type
 * Weidmann, N. B., Hegre, H. and Raleigh, C. (2006). Modeling Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Civil War http://www.icr.ethz.ch/publications/spatpatterns/index
 * Cederman, Lars-Erik. 2006 (forthcoming). Articulating the Geo-Cultural Logic of Nationalist Insurgency. In Order, Conflict, and Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. – 2003/4 Version at http://www.icr.ethz.ch/publications/natinsurgency/index
 * SFI
 * Ravi Bhavnani and David Backer (1999). "Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide: Accounting for Differences" Sante Fe Institute Working Paper 99-07-053 (August). http://www.santafe.edu/research/publications/workingpapers/99-07-053.pdf
 * JASSS
 * Ravi Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, and Jonas Nart. (2008)."REsCape: An Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11:2 (March). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/2/7.html
 * Complexity
 * Ravi Bhavnani, David Backer, and Rick Riolo. (2008)."Simulating Closed Regimes Using Agent-Based Models." Complexity (September/October 2008): 33-46. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/38804/home
 * Misc
 * Srbljinovic, A. "An Agent Based Model of Ethnic Mobilization" http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/1/1.html
 * A basic model with group affiliation and degree of affiliation, showing how different initial conditions affect the polarization of "society". Very abstract, but a clear model.

Misc Refs

 * http://www.stanford.edu/~dasiegel/Siegel--APSA-2004.pdf
 * http://www.mcwl.usmc.mil/Albert/research/lwc02_cv.pdf
 * Advances_in_Modeling_Political_Processes.pdf torsten.selck
 * http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/DIS.2006.50
 * IEEE Workshop on Distributed Intelligent Systems: Collective Intelligence and Its Applications (DIS’06) pp. 285-290 Modelling a Typical Guerrilla War Jim Doran, University of Essex An agent-based model of a typical guerrilla war, the Iruba model, has been designed and implemented based upon published descriptions and theories of guerrilla warfare. Experimental results have been obtained with the model and conclusions drawn. A core feedback loop is detected. The possibility of using the Iruba model to predict the outcomes of specific guerrilla wars is discussed and it is suggested that such predictive models are feasible and are potentially useful tools for peacemakers.
 * Cultural Differences and Economic Incentives: an Agent-Based Study of Their Impact on the Emergence … D Miodownik - Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation - jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk Explanations of the emergence of regional autonomy movements - political organizations seeking to express sub-state affinities and interests - often...
 * "Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent Based Computational Approach" Cogprints - On Massive Conflict: Macro-Micro Link We construct a dynamical model based on some propositions on massive conflict based upon ... . ... cogprints.org/3507/
 * An Agent-Based Model Component to a Framework for the Analysis of Terrorist-Group Dynamics - group of 2 » GA Backus, RJ Glass - cs.sandia.gov Page 1. SANDIA REPORT SAND2006-0860P Unlimited Release February 2006 An Agent-Based Model Component to a Framework for the Analysis of Terrorist- Group Dynamics ...
 * An Agent-Based Model of Terrorist Activity.  Agent models comprise a range of types, of which this one is an extension of ... J. M., 2002 Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach.  www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/events/conferences/2005/2005_proceedings/Bulleit.pdf -
 * Modeling Civil Violence: An Evolutionary Multi-Agent, Game Theoretic Approach http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1688503&isnumber=35623 Goh, C.K. Quek, H.Y. Tan, K.C. Abbass, H.A. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore, 4, Engineering Drive 3, Singapore 117576.;
 * This paper appears in: Evolutionary Computation, 2006. CEC 2006. IEEE Congress on Publication Date: 16-21 July 2006 On page(s): 1624- 1631 ISBN: 0-7803-9487-9 Posted online: 2006-09-11 10:16:56.0
 * Abstract This paper focuses on the design and development of a spatial Evolutionary Multi-Agent Social Network (EMAS) to investigate the underlying emergent macroscopic behavioral dynamics of civil violence, as a result of the microscopic local movement and game-theoretic interactions between multiple goal-oriented agents. Agents are modeled from multi-disciplinary perspectives and their behavioral strategies are evolved over time via collective co-evolution and independent learning. Experimental results reveal the onset of fascinating global emergent phenomenon as well as interesting patterns of group movement and behavioral development. Analysis of the results provides new insights into the intricate behavioral dynamics that arises in civil upheavals. Collectively, EMAS serves as a vehicle to facilitate the behavioral development of autonomous agents as well as a platform to verify the effectiveness of various violence management policies which is paramount to the mitigation of casualties.
 * Contact theory
 * E.g., Grim's "Modeling Prejudice Reduction"; shows that contact theory is supported by a simple Spatialized Game Theory model of the iterated Prisoner's dillema
 * spatialized game theoy
 * E.g., Boix's model of rebellion based on economic inequality, cost of rebellion, uncertainty in assessing each group's power on Amazon
 * "Competition Theory",
 * E.g., ala Olzak's "Dynamics of Ethnic Competition and Conflict" http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0804723370. An often cited model of competition with four processes: immigration / migration, economic contraction, ethnic group specific resources, political challenges to ethnic groups.
 * Horowitz's theory of ethnic domination "Enthic Groups in Conflict" on Google
 * Current Events
 * Quantitative Study of historical insurgencies, applied to Iraq http://www.psci.unt.edu/enterline/ajejmgsurgev25c.pdf